If you are like me you take care of your loved ones before the crazy Christmas season rolls in. I like getting the people close to me something that is personal and one of a kind if I can. I go to sites like Our Handmade Gifts, you can find some unique stuff there.
I like bargain sites, who doesn’t! I have found some cool Nascar merchandise especially Nascar jewelry. Good stuff that is handmade and everything on that site is only $7.
On big race days I like to pick out the whole field sometimes. It makes you a better handicapper as you make the list from who is going to be last and then up. You can pretty much figure out the also-rans and the Derby is a good example as you can usually throw out 5 horses asap. It is about 5 hours until the derby when I post this and it should be fun to see how close I come in. I see an honest pace in the race and John Velazquez closing on Circular Quay but not enough to fight off Scat Daddy.
14 14 Scat Daddy Prado E S Pletcher Todd A 126 L 10-1
16 16 Circular Quay Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 126 L 8-1
7 7 Street Sense Borel C H Nafzger Carl A 126 L 4-1
12 12 Nobiz Like Shobiz Velasquez C Tagg Barclay 126 L 8-1
13 13 Sam P. Dominguez R A Pletcher Todd A 126 Blk-Off L 20-1
18 18 Any Given Saturday Gomez G K Pletcher Todd A 126 L 12-1
3 3 Zanjero Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 126 L 30-1
19 19 Dominican Bejarano R Miller Darrin 126 L 20-1
8 8 Hard Spun Pino M G Jones J Larry 126 L 15-1
15 15 Tiago Smith M E Shirreffs John 126 L 15-1
6 6 Cowtown Cat Jara F Pletcher Todd A 126 L 20-1
2 2 Curlin Albarado R J Asmussen Steven M 126 L 7-2
20 20 Great Hunter Nakatani C S O’Neill Doug 126 L 15-1
9 9 Liquidity Flores D R O’Neill Doug 126 Blk-Off L 30-1
17 17 Stormello Desormeaux K J Currin William L 126 L 30-1
4 4 Storm in May Leyva J C Kaplan William A 126 L 30-1
10 10 Teuflesberg Elliott S Sanders Jamie 126 L 30-1
5 5 Imawildandcrazyguy Guidry M Kaplan William A 126 L 50-1
11 11 Bwana Bull Castellano J J Hollendorfer Jerry 126 L 50-1
1 1 Sedgefield Leparoux J R Miller Darrin 126 L 50-1
G morning all – Its derby day and you know I have to share who I like in the race. After a lot of reading I am going with Scat Daddy.
All of Todd Pletcher horse have a shot at being in the money except Sam P who may surprise a lot of people when he runs and could get 4th or 5th. If you were to tak Todds 5 horses and and Cash Asmusen’s two horses and box all seven you could have a nice paying Superfecta.
The horse Curlin will go off as a favorite but 3 races are not enough and he will be fed to the wolves by the other jockeys in the race as he is the one to shoot for. He may be near the front but I think the distance is too much for him.
There is a lot of ways you can bet the Kentucky Derby but most of them are not the smartest ways to wager. Last year I had the winner and the year before that also. How did I do it. I will tell you!
There are three ways for me. First thing I look at is breeding. The horse has to be bred to run all day. If the horse is a maybe then throw it out. But Vinny how do I know this information? Simple it is in the listings where they show the horses parents, you just have to know if they were bred to run for distance. That you can look up also on the internet.
Next up I get rid of the favorite! Yep thats right, the favorite is no good in the derby and it isn’t a smart wager since people that dont bet normally will play the favorite just to have a winning ticket. The jockeys know that the horse is the favorite and won’t let the horse have a good trip since eliminating that horse gives them a better shot at winning. The favorite rarely wins hmmmm. Your money is better spent on a horse that is second or even thrid choice.
The next thing I look at is a horse that has a limited amount of starts: This is how I came up with Lemon Drop Kid and Smarty Jones a few years back. A horse that has only 4 starts is a fresh horse that hasn’t been beaten up in prep races leading to the derby. I also like horses that come out of the Florida derby since that provides them with enough rest until derby day. Horses that run up front in the Florida derby usually fire a good race in the derby.
